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The cool tropics paradox. The geological evidence appeared to constrain temperatures to the red/blue band, whereas models produced the brown line taking just continental configuration into account, and the blue line when they included increased atmospheric CO2. Vertical axis: Temperature; horizontal:latitude.
The cool tropics paradox refers to an apparent difference between modelled estimates of tropical temperatures during warm, ice-free periods of the Cretaceous and Eocene, and the colder temperatures which proxies suggested were present. The long-standing paradox was resolved when it became clear that the proxies were misleading, meaning that tropics were warmer than previously believed.
Contents
1 Origin of the paradox
1.1 Models
1.2 Data supporting cool tropical oceans
1.3 Sources of error
1.4 Reconciling the data with the model
2 Unravelling the paradox
2.1 Hints of warmth - terrestrial proxies
2.2 Detecting diagenesis in molluscs
2.3 Data from molluscs
2.4 Reassessment of the foramaniferal record
3 References
//
Origin of the paradox
Proxy-based reconstructions of paleotemperature appeared to predict a low temperature gradient between the tropics and poles. Data from surface-dwelling foramanifera suggested that during the late Cretaceous, an unusually warm period, sea surface temperatures were cooler than today's. The term was later applied to similar situations, for example during the Eocene.
Climate models which worked during the Tertiary failed to produce this low temperature gradient; in order to match the observed data, they predicted that the tropics should be 40 or more - much hotter than the proxies said they were. To attempt to match the data, bizarre models involving unreasonable eddies were required.
Models
Models were developed to predict and explain the lack of ice during the warm periods of the Cretaceous and Eocene. Models are developed according to the fundamental principle that they should be kept as simple as possible. Consequently, the first models attempted to explain the lack of ice using solely the different continental configuration. These could not produce an ice-free state without using an increased atmospheric concentration of CO2; this assumption was checked against the evidence and found to be valid. This introduced a new difficulty: more CO2 would produce warmer tropical sea temperatures, and the evidence suggested they were the same or even colder than today's.
Data supporting cool tropical oceans
Foramaniferal data, suggesting tropical temperatures cooler than today's, disagreed with terrestrial proxies, which spoke of warmer temperatures - although most of the terrestrial figures are based on extrapolation of data from outside the tropics.
Sources of error
Analytical error is around 2-3 for individual specimens, but this drops to 0.5-1.0 when a sample is analysed - not enough to explain the discrepancy. Other factors mean that any pristine sample can be considered to have an associated error of up to 3. Changes in salinity, kinetic and diagenesis, can also confound analysis: the latter two are each estimated to reduce estimated temperatures by 1-2, and are difficult to quantify.
Reconciling the data with the model
Taking the data to be true, how could they be reconciled with the predictions of the model? The only way the model could be "tweaked" was by fiddling with the parameterisation of clouds, one of the most unpredictable aspects of any model. The model was adjusted to assume that the higher CO2 levels produced more tropical cloud, shielding these regions from the sun's heat. However, there was no evidence for this behaviour, and still left problems. The poles were still warmer than the models predicted. Further feedbacks, including increased poleward heat transport by the oceans, and vegetational responses at high latitudes, were proposed, but these didn't fully explain behaviour in the southern hemisphere, and winter, respectively.
Unravelling the paradox
Hints of warmth - terrestrial proxies
Data from terrestrial proxies suggested that the equator may have reached 304] - however, this figure is based upon extrapolation of data found outside the tropics. This would imply that the foramaniferal proxies were wrong - the tests may perhaps have been overprinted by diagenesis. Researchers turned to shallow marine molluscs as it is easy to determine whether their shells had been altered by diagenesis.
Detecting diagenesis in molluscs
Many mollusc shells are constructed from aragonite, a mineral that is quickly replaced by calcite by diagenetic alteration. Also, near-shore molluscs preserve seasonal variability in their shells, a feature that would be lost in the presence of a diagenetic signal. This removes ambiguity about whether or not a shell has...(and so on)

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